By that title, I refer both to the corruption associated with the pandemic as well as the possible eruption of disease we are potentially about to see in the U.S. You know, like India is seeing now?
Much of this blog is a consolidation of recent data and expressed ideas in my daily FB posted COVID updates. I’m simply trying to wrap my mind around what I’m reading and digest it into what it might mean going forward. It’s all just my speculation on the interpretation I have of the data I access, presented to you for comment, feedback, idea generation, something to share (or simply to laugh at…), as the case may be.
So what’s happening of late?
I’m noticing that while MN continues to push vaccinations, we seem to have peaked on folks getting them. What this means for disease spread is far from sure, as becomes clearer below.
While some may be surprised to see this trend of Minnesota vaccine figures waning, you can count me NOT shocked. With the complete failure by the government to be honest about the data and transparent about the backrooms deals, all while we see continued actions of white supremacy throughout agencies and in the legislatures and courts… I’m surprised as many people TRUST the vaccines as do.
Though I get the calculation of risks that lead many to secure them, I’m not sure these folks all have access to vaccine data (or personal experience) that might change their minds, were they only aware of it. I’m simply operating on the precautionary principle and I realize my privilege of being a hermit in the woods is a big part of what allows me to do so. I also realize it means that folks who choose to only associate in person with vaccinated people will be out of my life physically… for a while at least. Which was something I was pretty geared for since… well, really over a year ago, so… sad but not unexpected.
There are many with valid concerns regarding these “emergency use” vaccines. We have turned our entire global population into a human experiment… with unknown repercussions to come. Already coming, in fact.
No surprise, I guess, as humans have long decided about asbestos, farming with chemicals, PFAS, and other bows down to human science (without regard for natural repercussions), which have brought similar problems… Simply something I’d hope we can all consider as we each make our own decisions about whether or not to be vaccinated. Let’s be less judgmental and more compassionate perhaps? Not so all-knowingly confident… as we lack real data to hold such confidence?
While Minnesota seems to be banking on a downward trend in figures as they happily vaccinate more of their citizens, I’m afraid their planning figures for PPE may be a bit short, if instead we continue to see hospitalizations rise. As can be seen in the tables, Minnesota is banking on supplies lasting for at least another 52 days. However, I see a couple problems with their data that might indicate a less than fully prepared plan.
First, let’s talk about the basis of their plan. As of April 2nd (nice they didn’t use April Fool’s Day but…) our managers are banking on the PPE levels in this graphic. We’re looking at 114 days worth of face masks, 105 days of face shields, 124 days of gloves, 156 of gowns, and 290 of N95 respirators. Those figures are based on a baseline usage from August 2020. They even halve those figures – if we happen to get to 2X baseline usage, which is how we get to “at least” 52 days (with the limiting factor being face shields). Note that we have ZERO days on hand awaiting delivery for face masks, gowns and N95 respirators while we have 3 days of face shields and 12 days worth of gloves awaiting delivery.
On the whole, this seems a really great plan, eh? Well-thought out with a doubling of the baseline usage to – we assume – conservatively estimate the planning and, possibly facilitating ordering plans as well? Well, if August is a good baseline of usage, this makes sense. Let’s see if it does.
In August 2020, we were seeing an average of 10.2 ICU and 41.7 hospitalizations each day. So, if we were at even 20 ICUs and 83 hospitalizations, we’d be in good shape using this as a basis, right? However, if we get back up to November usage figures of 39.3 ICUs and 230.9 hospitalizations, we’d be at 3.9X and 5.5X the usage of August. So definitely underestimating our needs. Currently, we’re averaging ICUs of 1.7X and hospitalizations of 2.3X August 2020 figures (17.4 ICUs & 95.4 hospitalizations daily for April 2021). If trends continue for less hospitalizations, Minnesota will be ok.
However, if things take off – as we’ve seen in India – and if Minnesota returns to November levels of hospitalizations, we’d see a less rosy picture. If we halve the prepared supplies again, (to simulate an immediate uptick to a 4X rate of use), Minnesotans are looking at less than a month’s supply on face masks & shields, just about a month’s supply on gloves and gowns, and about a 2.5 month supply on N95 respirators. With almost nothing in the pipeline awaiting delivery. Yet, if we see that happen, perhaps there are no plans that might be sufficient.
And how are our Minnesota hospitals doing to remain prepared? Well, not as good as one might hope.
MN maintains 101 ICU beds and 702 hospital beds over May Day weekend.
Staffing capacities show more than 60% of hospitals are unable to maintain expected capacities for ICU or regular bed support.
With the many variants, I’m not sure that MN is taking a proper precautionary approach… especially with many vaccinated still finding themselves infected… and even in some cases dying. While some call it propaganda, this information on vaccine development, testing, and concerns has been enlightening. I find the “propaganda” of mainstream news, alt-media, and even late night hosts poo-pooing the use of Ivermectin to be just as concerning… though I’m guessing some (having been indoctrinated by the mainstream media narrative over long months) will simply think me “crazy” for it. Even the NIH is re-considering Ivermectin FFS.
I’m more into digesting the science, examining data, looking at how cells and viruses function than simply listening to talking heads (paid to please their sponsors) and believing what they have to say. Especially when the data is so readily saying the opposite of what those talking heads are implying? It’s not just 6 people with blood clots, folks.
As of April 20, the CDC had reported a total of 7,157 cases of COVID-19 among fully vaccinated people and 88 deaths. However, as of April 26th, that rose to 9,245 cases and 132 deaths – an increase of 29% in cases in less than a week and 50% increase in deaths. Additionally, the CDC figures on April 13th were 5800 cases with 74 dead – meaning we’ve seen a 59% increase in cases and 78% increase in deaths for vaccinated folks in less than two weeks. Not good trends…
Something to watch closely as it appears to affect women at a higher rate. I’m wondering what the stats are on people of color, though those are not broken out in the CDC reporting.
The data on vaccination by race is an interesting review for MN. [scroll down for the state-by-state table] From what I can tell in a quick review, Minnesota has vaccinated more whites proportionately than other races (perhaps to be expected in a white supremacy focused society), though Asians seem to get a fair swing at accessibility. Regardless, death counts appear best for Asians, worst for whites (my guess would be that this is due to complacency and obesity… regardless of accessibility to health care) and, of course, there is NO DATA for the Indigenous to this land. FFS.
Overall, things are tentative from my perspective. And if Tim Walz and his administration still plan to allow a bunch of pipeliners to return from out-of-state in coming weeks, I’d say we better prepare for the worst.