05 Monday Jun 2023
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Economics, Insanity, Local Reporting, Politics, Saving the Earth
Remember all the fanfare about Governor Tim Walz’ Climate Subcabinet? Apply today!
I applied. Thought I could bring perspective. But did they really want perspective?
I guess it was an easy job?
That Annual Report certainly looks to be running late… by a couple years now.
Yep. First and last.
Another nothing burger financed by taxpayer funds?
A boondoggle for friends to gather and pretend they were working?
No wonder we’re seeing things go downhill fast?
Who is really doing anything?
24 Monday Apr 2023
Tags
CELDF, climate change, Covid, COVID-19, Enbridge, Guantanamo, Keystone, Lies, Line 3, Line 93, Miscarriage, mRNA, Propaganda, Stillbirth, Vaccine, Walker Brook
It’s hard to say what has been most frustrating about my life as an activist but perhaps it’s the freaking absurdity of what continues to sell like hotcakes? Against all logic. Even though the deception can be discovered with the least bit of scrutiny? š§
Natalie sings of our situation…
Regardless of whether it is Big Pharma, our government, or Big Oil, my concerns about the players are finding themselves on solid ground. The proof continues to emerge on Enbridge’s Line 93 construction failures (while state agencies continue to remain silent on these as-yet-unreported concerns) and data keeps coming to light on the adverse impacts of the mRNA vaccines.
While it can be difficult to face the blowback from those who are not yet discerning the bullshit, I’ll continue to speak truth as I discover it. And I’ll be ever grateful for those who are willing to discuss life matters openly… to find truth together.
This past week shows recent concerns being wrangled:
1. The news on vaccines continues to come. None of it good, sadly, for those who’ve been inoculated with mRNA.
2. Even the Aspen Institute is now a Propaganda Program!! For crying out loud. Next thing you know Fox News will be telling more truth than MPR? š§ Lots of shake ups in MSM this week, eh? Feels collapse is nearer every day and we’ll only know about it if we’re watching alternative media. Perhaps you can check out these tidbits to learn more?
3. Industry failures that result in Environmental damages:
4. How capitalism works…
Why the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep dying. Poor die at a rate of 500/day… Just because they are poor. Being poor is REALLY EXPENSIVE. SO MANY RULES that create strive for the poor while giving more help to the rich. Guess the rich got better bootstraps? 
And that’s to not even mention Guantanamo, the Canadian Kids, or Earth Day celebrations.
I’ll see you Monday! {Unless, like Tucker, my producer kills my show!!} š¬
17 Monday Apr 2023
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Community, Coronavirus, Death, Economics, Family, Health, Human Extinction, Musings
Tags
By the time we realized the truth, it was too late to do anything.
Humans never were good at understanding our limits.
Our hubris was our demise.
20 Monday Mar 2023
Tags
We watch our banks… collapsing?
Or being made to appear as if they are anyway.
I wonder how much longer…
before all the systems ~ every one of which is showing signs of strain… to keep up with growing needs, improve upon services, or even maintain its basic foundations ~
are simply GONE.
We joke about the internet disappearing.
Yet, how much is already unavailable… under the thumb that ensures no “misinformation”?
(Or… maybe just moved… to a new platform… where one can still speak freely?)
But is the day soon? When we simply won’t have these magic computers in our pockets to tell us…
Who to be.
Which place has the best doohickey for the least output.
How to get where we’re going.
Some joke about humans who cannot get from point A to B without a GPS machine directing them.
The latest fad is using paper maps.
(Who knew, Mom!?! You’ve always been ahead of the curve.)
So how are we navigating now?
Are we still following the signs of a colonized culture, hell bent on using military might to ensure its GDP?
Are we still mindlessly seeking the next job, clothes, partner, car, house… that will fulfill us?
Are we sensing the fruitlessness, nay cruelty, of the American Way of Life?
Many more each day, by choice or circumstance, are choosing a new way.
A holistic, universal, mutual aid network way of engaging with their fellow crew members.
A way that is more direct, local, sustainable, and… FUN!!!
I am calling it the BEconomy.
This is a place where each of us can BE who we are… doing the work we love ~ be it cooking, researching, fishing, sewing, cleaning, growing, organizing, teaching, entertaining ~ each and every one of us… loving our neighbors as we find our way forward together… in love, for the good of all.
Some may call me a Dreamer.
Nevertheless.
This feels like a big new year opening before me…
And I feel it just may be…
My best yet.
š
19 Monday Dec 2022
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Community, Local Reporting, Preventing Line 3
Tags
1855 Treaty, Aquifer, Clearwater County, Enbridge, Keystone, Line 3, Line 93, Mill Creek, Minnesota, MN DNR, MPCA, Pipeline, spill
This is a blog post about the letter I wrote last week to 55th Chief of Engineers, Lieutenant General Spellmon, of the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers regarding my concerns on Enbridge’s Line 3/93, especially here in Clearwater County. I meet with the County Commissioners tomorrow to review these concerns and discuss response readiness.
Boozhoo, Lieutenant General Spellmon,
Iām a retired Metallurgical Engineer writing from 1855 Treaty Territory regarding growing concerns for the current Enbridge worksite at Walker Brook in Clearwater County, Minnesota. These concerns were only heightened by the December 7 Keystone pipeline rupture at Mill Creek, a geography so similar to ours with a creek adjacent to an uphill pipeline corridor. We appreciate the work you are doing there in response to the latest Keystone pipeline failure. We are hopeful to prevent a need for similar response at our location, which geologically is far more water-filled and unstable than that of the Kansas plains.
Weāve been watching Walker Brook valley with concern since early August when we noticed Enbridgeās timber matting access road had been reinstalled west of Clearwater County 110. In late August, my partner discovered an open hole above the pipeline corridor and we began watching this place even more closely. [47-degrees, 47-minutes, 63-seconds, and -95-degrees, 28-minutes, 35-seconds.]
This photo shows upwelling as indicated by surface ripples. Since then, weāve taken several hikes in to monitor and test at this location, concerned about impacts to the land and water quality.
Located within a 399-acre section of state tax land and County Memorial Forest, this crossing of Enbridgeās Line 3/93 pipeline at Walker Brook is in a precarious valley of deep glacial till and forested peatbog very similar to LaSalle Valley, where Enbridge is also currently struggling to remediate multiple upwelling water locations. These two valleys are like mirror images of each other on either side of the Mississippi River Line 3/93 crossing, where Enbridge experienced multiple frac-outs into the large wetlands of Mississippi River headwaters. This is clearly a fragile geology, full of water, which opponents to the Line 3 project testified was too much of a risk for a Tar Sands pipeline project.
We see now, that heeding citizen warnings would have been prudent. The applicantās route was a bad idea that was not given enough geotechnical or hydrological study to assure prevention of avoidable tragedies. We remain disappointed that the USACE refused to perform an EIS as that work may have saved us these troubles. A year after Enbridge began flowing tar sands crude through their pipeline, we still await resolution of upwards of 4 dozen sites of deep groundwater upwellings, many of which, based on Enbridgeās lack of transparent communication regarding their environmental failures both during construction and since formal construction ended, we believe the state remains ignorant.
As a retired Metallurgical Engineer, my concerns include those regarding the pipeline integrity in Walker Brook Valley. If the pipeline is floating in a veneer of peat and/or being fatigued by the fluctuating water levels, the stresses could exceed designed metallurgical limits. I am concerned the Canadian Corporation, as evidenced in this video, has found this installation to be more problematic than expected. We know that Enbridge has struggled to complete their work at this crossing for over a year, yet there has been no release of information on this site to the public, save that done by Waadookawaad Amikwag in their announcements and webinars. Nor does it appear the DNR or MPCA are communicating with Clearwater County Commissioners or the County Land Commissioner on this concern. As this is Clearwater County Memorial Forest, public land with multiple deer stands as hunting remains open this weekend, we still have no notice of this danger to the public from the state or federal agencies. We are concerned that Enbridge alone knows of the risks here and that state and federal agencies may remain uninformed.
You received memos from Minnesota US Representative Betty McCollum, on 10/14/22, and Representative Ilhan Omar more recently, regarding the concerns of Waadookawaad Amikwag, a citizen scientist group seeking your assistance for federal investigation of this situation. As USEPA recently replied to Representative McCollumās memo, we look forward to receiving your response soon as well. We are hopeful for a robust response to our specific concerns of deep underground upwelling water flows.
I write today with evidence of recent dirt piles adjacent to the Enbridge Line 3/93 corridor; another possible indication this project in the valley may involve pipeline integrity concerns.
In addition, we hold concerns for the excessive water removal from the valley as Walker Brook feeds The Red River of the North. Water being pumped up the hillside and over the Laurentian Divide now overwhelms the Enbridge dewatering station and flows across County 110 north of the project site, as indicated in the photo below. These ponds and brook that result are situated in the Mississippi River watershed and the excess water appears bound for Daniel Lake in the Clearwater State Wildlife Management Area. How will these millions of gallons of water being moved from one watershed to another impact both watersheds and the wildlife and people who rely on them?
Finally, we are concerned to know if this location has been reported to PHMSA and if their representatives might be of assistance to watch closely over this worksite of concern. And we urge your Engineers to ask Waadookawaad Amikwag for assistance as they are watching closely and have data and evidence on the nature of this concern that might be helpful in resolution.
We look forward to watching state and federal agencies build relationships of trust with the public monitors to ensure full enforcement of the Clean Water Act in Clearwater County and across Minnesota.
Thank you for your consideration. Miigwech Bizindaawiyeg.
Sincerely,
Jami Gaither
Alida, MN
218-657-2321
cc:
Michael S. Regan, USEPA
Alan K. Mayberry, PHMSA
Timothy Gaither, PHMSA
U.S. Congresswoman Betty McCollum, Minnesota 4thĀ District
U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Minnesota 5thĀ District
Anna Hotz, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Randall Doneen, Minnesota DNR
Waadookawaad Amikwag
Sheriff Darin Halverson, Clearwater County Sheriffās Office
Andy Anderson, Clearwater County CCSO EMS
Bruce Cox, Clearwater County Land Commissioner
Got word from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission Secretary Seuffert Friday that it was posted to the Docket!!
26 Wednesday Oct 2022
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Local Reporting, Preventing Line 3
Tags
Deep Water Breach, DNR, Enbridge, Line 3, Minnesota, MPCA, Pipeline, Unreported
NOTE: VIDEO BEING RELEASED AS TODAY WE FIND ADDITIONAL ENCROACHMENT OF ENBRIDGE MATERIALS AND EQUIPMENT TO WALKER BROOK as of THIS WEEK.
WATCH THIS CHANNEL FOR UPDATES.
THE AG’s REPORTED SETTLEMENT WITH ENBRIDGE APPEARS perhaps PREMATURE?
Video shows the 10/5/22 examination of the landscape within Walker Brook Valley at Enbridge’s second crossing of the small stream, including evidence showing deep water upwelling from the ground. This is along the RA-05 portion of the corridor route in Clearwater County.
It is now evident that deep underground water (at a constant 45Ā°F) is being released to the surface and bled from the hillside down and into the forest to the south of the clear-cut corridor. A test well has been installed and extensive timber matting has been placed through the wetlands and into the valley. The large hole in the land, downhill (and thus downstream) from the well installation, now shows gray contamination buildup on the branches reaching in from the sides of the sinkhole. In addition, there is an oily sheen on the surface of the sinkhole now. While testing has not been completed to confirm this is a petroleum-based sheen, its surface behavior is indicative of this possibility.
The water temperature coming into the sinkhole is colder than when it leaves, likely due to surface solar and air exposure of the cold, deep, underground water bleeding in from uphill and from below. The water within the hole is not cold like deeper groundwater so may be a superficial water body. Yet, the bottom undulates and a ski pole goes deep into the hole past the apparent bottom.
Black piping diverts water, from both the timber matting area and the large sinkhole, to the southwest, ending at the forest’s edge and flowing on into Walker Brook below. This water all tests at about 45-50 degrees, indicating a deep water breach.
Video was made between 1500 and 1800 hours on 10/5/22.
Narrative – Jami Gaither for Waadookawaad Amikwag:
Enbridgeās deep water upwelling at their Line 3 crossing of Walker Brook includes a massive timber matting addition. Todayās review discusses a near-platform identification of biological sheen, moves to the sinkhole, and then reviews downhill piping outlets where Enbridge is diverting water from its corridor breach to the nearby forest edge.
Before we go too far, as there is so much to catch in this video, here’s a bit more to help understanding.
Run-off from underground fills the valley consuming the brook into a pond at the valley floor at this location, not yet disclosed to the public by Minnesota agencies. Investigation of pooling near the platform brought concern of an oily sheen. A touch into the surface revealed a hole that remains open, indicating a biological sheen, not one with petroleum contamination. Water temps measured in the 40ās were indicative of a deep water upwelling.
Tubing sections from under the platform lead to this 4ā x 6ā sinkhole that continuously burps up air and water. Following installation of a test well, we see evidence of residue coating surfaces of roots and the sides of the hole. The 10/5/22 photo compares poorly with the clarity of this area captured on 8/25/22. The surface now has a sheen as well, which, upon disturbance, shows the film closing back in on itself, indicating a petroleum-based contamination. It seems Enbridgeās attempts at remediation are creating more pollution impacts than resolution of their deep water upwelling. As this land is public-access, it creates public safety concerns. We can also see in this area how the temperature changes from the inlet – which appears to be capturing uphill run-off – to the sinkhole itself; a gain of 7-8Ā°F in a short distance.
As we move to the outlet piping running into the edge of the forest at the edge of Enbridgeās Line 3 project clearcut, we find more cold water in the 40ās rushing quickly into the land. It is clear that there is a large amount of water being bled from underground in this location, having an unknown impact on the stability of the land around this pipeline installation, as evidenced most strongly by the sinkhole in the corridor very near the pipeline itself.
12 Monday Sep 2022
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Community, Death, Human Extinction, Insanity
We failed to maintain our water systems… and are realizing it at just the moment the climate is bringing a big surge in what it’s sending us in the way of floods.
Exponentials never were our forte. ā ļø
05 Monday Sep 2022
Posted in Citizenship, Climate Change, Community, Death, Insanity, Local Reporting, Preventing Line 3
Tags
Accountability, climate change, Climate Crisis, Line 3, Line 5, Line 93, MN PUC, MNDNR, MPCA, Pipelines
Snowden, Manning, & Assange showed, by our own definitions, that the U.S. is guilty of war crimes. They have been imprisoned for revealing these truths.
Water Protectors and Land Defenders too have been charged and locked up for trying to tell the hard truths.
The unrelenting news of flooding, fires, drought, and ecological devastation shows little pause in the fray towards… “progress”.
At what point do humans come to understand that their own comforts [mostly enjoyed by the elite, mostly white, citizens] are the very destruction of the air on which they are dependent?
The water is being controlled, disregarded, and poisoned. The air and land are being polluted indiscriminately.
What are we doing to preserve the land, air, and water… on which we depend for the essentials of life?
Are we simply running towards our own deaths… and bringing death for so many more in the process?
We ignore truth to our own peril.
We of Waadookawaad Amikwag continue to work to uncover the truth. Help us spread the word?
Tim Walz 800-657-3717
AG Ellison 800-657-3787
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (800) 657-3864 [I usually call Deputy Commissioner Peter Tester at 651-757-2013… though he doesn’t usually answer. Or return calls. Maybe that’s the MPCA way? š¤]
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources 888-646-6367
And if you’ve given up on the state, as many of us have found them to be non-responsive… maybe try these folks:
US Army Corps of Engineers 651-290-5882
US Environmental Protection Agency 312-353-2000
Miigwech.
15 Monday Aug 2022
Posted in Climate Change, Economics, Insanity
Tags
Corporate Rule, fossil fuel industry, oligarch, oligarchs, Pigs at the Trough, Regulatory Capture, Taxpayer, Taxpayer Liability
Originally published on Pipeline Fighters Hub. Note some highlights are mine.
This blog explains how the Inflation Reduction Act is a HUGE WINDFALL whose design may well serve to reinvigorate the coal industry… forcing taxpayers to give more big profits to players in an already bloated industry… as we literally pay them to pollute our world.
Here’s his close, which is just as good as an opener (in case you’re short on time or lack will to read deeper):
The 45Q program is a means for CO2 emitters and their oligarch investors to claim to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously supporting the next wave of oil development and paying no taxes. By indiscriminately ramping up the 45Q programās carbon credits by 70% across the board, the IRA threatens to hand out tens of billions of dollars in windfall tax credits to oligarchs and provide decades of public subsidies to all fossil fuel industries, while running roughshod over the local communities across America that would be subject to eminent domain for pipeline development. The IRAās 45Q amendments are a remarkable example of Congressional corruption and inequity that supports the global rich at the cost of harming everyday Americans.
Now, on to Paul’s analysis…
The Inflation Reduction Act May Save the Fossil Fuel Industry
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, HR 5376, (IRA) is moving through Congress, and there is not much time to understand the importance of its amendments to the 45Q tax credits and their implications for the fossil fuel industries.
If you are not familiar with tax credits, as a starting point, I suggest reading my blog posts on how the existing 45Q tax credit program works.
Why the IRAās Amendments to the 45Q Tax Credit Program Is Inequitable, Corrupt, and Wasteful
The federal 45Q tax credit program allows participants to reduce their federal taxes based on the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) they are able to extract from the air pollution that comes from smoke stacks. Under existing law, for each metric ton (2,204.6 pounds) of carbon captured, the existing program provides $50/metric ton if the carbon is simply pumped underground (sequestered) and $35/metric ton if the carbon is used in enhanced oil recovery operations (EOR). The use of carbon dioxide in EOR is based on the fact that liquid carbon dioxide is a very good solvent, so it can be used to dissolve oil that is trapped in rock deep underground.
The IRA would increase the 45Q program tax credits to $85/metric ton for sequestration and $60/metric ton for EOR, a 70% increase. For most people, these are just abstract numbers. But, they are very important to the U.S. Congress and their oligarch supporters, so itās important for us to understand how this increase in tax benefits will affect our country and environment. This blog post explains the significance of the IRAās proposed increase in 45Q tax credits.
One of the most significant flaws in the 45Q program, made all the more glaring by the IRA, is that it provides fixed tax credits regardless of the cost of capturing carbon. The problem with this approach is that the costs of capturing carbon vary widely depending on industry. For example, the levelized break-even cost of carbon capture at ethanal plants is reported as $25-$35/metric ton. It may cost even less at natural gas processing plants. In contrast, the levelized break-even costs at coal power plants is reported to be in the range of $37-$55/metric ton, and at natural gas power plants $49-$114/metric ton. Yet, the 45Q program provides the exact same tax credit regardless of the actual costs of capture. The tables below show the range of estimated break-even costs needed to pay for carbon capture facilities at coal and natural gas power plants. Tax credits in excess of break-even costs can be turned into profit.
| COAL POWER PLANTBreak Even Costs | Average/ Representative ($/metric ton) | Low ($/metric ton) | High ($/metric ton) | ||||
| CO2 Capture at Coal Power Plants | 47 | 37 | 55 | ||||
| Pipeline Transportation (Onshore 10 Mt/year) | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||||
| Storage | 5 | 1 | 13 | ||||
| Total Capture, Transportation, and Storage | 55 | 40 | 72 |
| NATURAL GAS POWER PLANTBreak Even Costs | Average/ Representative ($/metric ton) | Low ($/metric ton) | High ($/metric ton) | ||||
| CO2 Capture at Natural Gas Power Plants | 76 | 49 | 114 | ||||
| Pipeline Transportation (Onshore 10 Mt/year) | 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | ||||
| Storage | 5 | 1 | 13 | ||||
| Total Capture, Transportation, and Storage | 84 | 52.3 | 130.8 |
Even though the levelized cost of capture at an ethanol plant might be just $25/metric ton and transportation and sequestration costs might add $5/ton more, the owner of the capture equipment would still receive tax credits worth $85/metric ton. The 70% increase in this one-size-fits-all tax credit means that low-cost carbon capture projects will win the lottery.
By way of example, the following table shows the annual maximum possible 45Q tax credits generated by the three carbon pipelines currently under development in the Midwest, both before and after the IRAās boost of the 45Q credits by 70%, based on their claimed annual maximum pipeline capacities. It is important to understand that the developers of these pipelines considered these projects to be economically viable and profitable without the IRAās proposed 70% increase.
| Project | Maximum Pipeline Capacities (metric tons per year) | Existing Annual Maximum Tax Credits at $50/MT | HR5376 Annual Maximum Tax Credits at $85/MT | Net Annual Maximum Tax Credit Increase Due to the IRA (Windfall) | |||||
| Summit | 12,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 1,020,000,000 | + 420,000,000 | |||||
| Navigator | 15,000,000 | 750,000,000 | 1,275,000,000 | +525,000,000 | |||||
| ADM/Wolf | 12,000,000 | 600,000,000 | 1,020,000,000 | +420,000,000 | |||||
| Total | 39,000,000 | 1,950,000,000 | 3,315,000,000 | +1,365,000,000 |
The IRA would provide, just for these three CCS projects, up to $1.365 billion dollars per year in windfall tax credits that are pure pork. How is this not tremendously wasteful and inequitable? While these pipelines are unlikely to operate at full capacity at startup, such that the actual amounts of tax credits claimed at first might be, say, 2/3 of the rated capacity, the point here is that by providing a one-size-fits-all tax credit, the IRA amendments to the 45Q program would provide grossly excessive tax credits for low-cost CCS projects. Even if these CCS projects operate at 2/3 capacity, the IRA, at a minimum, would provide these CCS projects hundreds of millions of dollars in tax credits per year above the levels necessary for construction and operation.
In contrast, the Canadian government is considering tax credits to cover 50% of CCS costs. This approach is similar to the IRAās proposed Investment Tax Credit for solar that would cover just 30% of the costs of building solar plants… Taking all tax and depreciation benefits for solar projects into account, the federal government subsidizes about 44% of the capital costs of solar projects. The remainder of the cost of solar is ultimately paid for by sale of the electricity generated. A percentage approach at least avoids granting grossly excessive tax credits to lower-cost projects.
In contrast, the $85/metric ton sequestration credit appears to provide tax credits in excess of 200% of the capital costs of CCS at ethanol plants, and possibly in excess of 150% of the costs of CCS at coal power plants. Since simply sequestering carbon does not generate cash, the 45Q tax credits must be high enough to pay for the entire cost of capture and sequestration projects. This being said, CCS projects may also receive cash from Californiaās low carbon fuel program or from selling CO2 to EOR projects, meaning that CCS projects might make earn money in addition to the tax credits.
So, who would receive these windfall tax credits? Only very large corporations and the super-rich have enough income to need huge amounts of tax credits. For example, investors in the Summit Carbon Solutions project include, but are not limited to, the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia; SK holdings, a South Korean company fined over 70 million dollars for defrauding the US Army, and Harold Hamm of fracked oil fame. This list indicates that the three Midwestern CCS projects will primarily benefit major corporations and the global oligarchs, such as Senator Joe Manchin, because nobody but them needs such massive amounts of tax credits.
Why the IRA Could Revitalize the Coal Industry
Now, letās consider how the IRA would impact the coal industry. To create example of potential tax credits available to the coal industry, I prepared a spreadsheet (attached) calculating examples of the maximum potential annual 45Q tax credits that could be claimed by 26 large Midwestern coal power plants (each with emissions of greater than 1 million metric tons of CO2 per year), if they installed carbon capture equipment and captured 100% of their 2020 emissions (emissions data from USEPA FLIGHT database). Again, it is unlikely that these coal power plants would capture 100% of emissions, and it would take years to develop CCS projects, but the estimates are intended to provide a sense of the scale of the financial benefits that could be provided to coal power plants and the potential for grossly excessive one-size-fits-all tax credit awards due to variations in carbon capture costs at different plants.
The estimates show that the maximum annual tax credits would range from $85 million to $1 billion, per year, per plant, depending on the size of the plant. Given the variable costs of carbon capture, the 45Q program could provide tax credits 18% to 113% above breakeven costs, or, depending on the size of the plant, roughly $13 million to $500 million per year, per plant, above the cost of the break-even CCS projects. This analysis indicates that the IRA would make CCS economically viable at a large proportion of coal plants in the US and potentially provide tax benefits far in excess of CCS project costs, meaning the 45Q tax credit could directly subsidize the coal industry.
When Congress first created the 45Q program, it limited tax credits to just the first 75 million tons of carbon captured, and this cap limited the financial impact of the program. In 2018, Congress removed this cap, meaning that the 45Q program has no legal dollar limit. As a result of the elimination of this cap and the IRAās 70% increase in tax credit amount, the majority of coal power plants nationwide might now be financially able to install CCS and collect tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in tax credits per year, per plant. Yes, it would take years to install all of the necessary carbon capture equipment, but once projects are announced and operational and billions have been invested in capture facilities and pipelines, it would be very difficult if not impossible to shut them down ā or shut down the coal plants that produce the captured carbon dioxide.
How Does the 45Q Programās Size Compare to the Tax Credits That Would Be Provided to Wind and Solar?
Letās compare the 45Q programās potential financial benefits to those provided by the current wind energy production tax credit, based on a study by the Congressional Research Service entitled, The Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit: In Brief, Updated April 29, 2020. Table 3 of this report on page 7 (pdf page 10) provides estimates of total nationwide federal renewable energy production tax credit expenditures, meaning the taxes lost due to PTC tax credit claims. Congress has estimated that the highest annual amount for total national PTC tax credit claims was $5.1 billion in 2019. Even considering that the IRA would provide enhanced PTC benefits, if the three Midwestern CCS projects start operations, they alone could be awarded tax credits worth up to $3.3 billion per year. If the 26 example coal plants captured 100% of their emissions, they would receive about $9.5 billion in tax credits. However, many more CCS projects are being planned.
The entire size of the ātax equity market,ā meaning the total amount of tax credits claimed for renewable energy, affordable housing, etc., was estimated for 2020 to be between $17 and $18 billion dollars. Since Congress failed to impose a limit on the size of the 45Q program and all large CO2 emitters including coal power plants, natural gas power plants, oil refineries, natural gas processing plants, fertilizer plants, etc., may capture and claim 45Q credits, it seems likely that the IRA would result in the 45Q tax credit program growing in size to far exceed the renewable energy tax credit program.
Therefore, it would appear that IRA could provide potential tax benefits to facilities that emit carbon dioxide that could dwarf the benefits provided to renewable energy. Moreover, given the potential for windfall tax credits, there may be a risk that tax credit investors would prefer to invest in CCS projects over wind and solar projects, because the return on investment at CCS projects could be much higher.
Isnāt CCS Necessary to Stop Climate Change?
One of the primary arguments made by CCS advocates is that CCS is necessary to achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, particularly from industries for which there are not good clean energy alternatives, such as steel production. The IRAās supporters claim that it sets the carbon credit amount at $85/metric ton specifically to make CCS economic at such hard-nut-to-crack industries, but the IRA makes this high tax credit amount available to all CO2 emitting industries, regardless of the availability of clean energy alternatives or the carbon capture costs.
CCS advocates also claim that the IPCC states that CCS will be a ākeyā component of global CO2 emission reductions, but these advocates completely fail to consider that the order in time in which we fund carbon mitigation options and the relative costs of options are both critically important factors. We should fund the less expensive, higher bang-for-the-buck options first, before pouring cash into expensive CCS at āhard nutā industries. The following table excerpts data from Figure SMP7 (attached) from the April 2022 IPCC report. The data shows that CCS for energy and industry are among the most expensive mitigation options and that at most they would reduce global CO2 emissions by a relatively small amount, as compared to much lower cost clean energy, efficiency, conservation, and other options.
Select Climate Change Mitigation Option Amounts and Costs from IPCC 2022 Figure SPM.7
The IPCC data indicates that global climate change mitigation efforts should first spend money on renewable energy, energy efficiency, conservation, and a variety of other lower-cost options before seeking to crack the expensive āhard nutā industries via CCS. The justification for the 45Q program focuses on āhard nutā mitigation needs, which are the most expensive, least bang-for-the-buck mitigation options and should be lower priority. Even worse, the vast majority of the 45Q tax credits would almost certainly not be used to crack the āhard nuts,ā but rather would be spent to continue operation of CO2 emitting industries that could be displaced by clean energy options. If the IRA is enacted, the oligarchs would likely first invest in CCS projects that provide windfall tax benefits, such as at ethanol and natural gas processing plants, before investing in expensive low-profit CCS projects at steel plants and other āhard nutā industries. The IPCC data indicates that CCS is not a key near-term climate mitigation solution, but rather should be funded after better mitigation options are fully exploited. The 45Q program is an example of spending a massive amount of money on the exact wrong thing.
Does the 45Q Tax Credit Program Deprioritize Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)?
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a process whereby fluid CO2 is pumped underground to dissolve oil out of rock. It turns out the fluid CO2 is good at dissolving oil out of the rock pores in legacy oilfields, but huge amounts of it are needed for the EOR process to work. CO2 EOR can increase the amount of oil pumped from suitable legacy oilfields by 50% or more, which could result in a huge amount of additional crude oil being pumped and burned, both in the US and globally. Typically, the emissions from burning the oil exceed the amount of CO2 left in the ground after EOR operations end, often by a ratio of at least 2 tons of oil-based carbon to 1 ton of stored carbon.
Given that the 45Q tax credit program provides a tax credit worth $85/metric ton if the CO2 is simply sequestered underground, and just $60/metric ton if the CO2 is used in EOR, some might think that this means CCS projects would prioritize sending the CO2 to sequestration sites. However, the 45Q program actually creates an incentive to use the CO2 in EOR, because EOR operators are expected to pay a fee for the CO2 of approximately $25 to $40/metric ton that would be in addition to the tax credit. Thus, if a coal plant captured carbon and sold it to an EOR operation, it would receive $60/metric ton in federal tax credits plus $25 to $40/metric ton from the EOR operator. To beat out sequestration, EOR operators would just need to pay at least $25/ton or more for the CO2.
In the alternative, an oil company could simply own some or all of the carbon capture equipment at a coal plant, oil refinery, etc., and therefore own the right to decide where to ship its share of the CO2. Moreover, the oil company could snarf up any windfall tax credits generated by the CCS project and in effect subsidize the cost of the CO2, thereby increasing the profitability of its EOR operation.
The oil industry sees CO2 EOR as its next major development wave that will grow as fracking declines. The primary obstacle to increased development of CO2 EOR is not economics or technical challenges ā it is a lack of access to huge amounts of liquid CO2. CO2 has been used in EOR for decades, but the EOR industry has primarily used natural underground CO2 deposits that are now pretty much fully exploited. The only way to make huge amounts of CO2 available to the EOR industry is to capture CO2 at industrial facilities and ship it to oilfields. The oil industry needs federally subsidized carbon capture projects to keep the oil flowing. This is why the CEO of Exxon recently described carbon capture the āholy grailā and called for the 45Q program tax credit to be increased to $100/metric ton. Carbon capture certainly is the holy grail for converting federal tax credits into future oil industry profits.
Bottom Line
The IRA is being rushed through Congress, yet it has the potential to provide truly massive subsidies and eyewatering windfall tax benefits to CO2 emitting industries. Itās not clear that those who are advocating for the IRA have adequately assessed the amount of potential tax credit benefits that an unlimited 45Q program could provide to CO2 emitters, especially when one considers that the coal, oil, and natural gas industries could all develop CCS projects and receive substantial financial benefits. Further, if tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars are spent to construct capture equipment and carbon pipelines, CO2 emitting industries would likely use these investments as arguments for why their CCS projects ā and the facilities that emit the captured CO2 ā should be kept in operation indefinitely. And, this would keep the federal gravy train rolling indefinitely.
The 45Q program is a means for CO2 emitters and their oligarch investors to claim to be reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously supporting the next wave of oil development and paying no taxes. By indiscriminately ramping up the 45Q programās carbon credits by 70% across the board, the IRA threatens to hand out tens of billions of dollars in windfall tax credits to oligarchs and provide decades of public subsidies to all fossil fuel industries, while running roughshod over the local communities across America that would be subject to eminent domain for pipeline development. The IRAās 45Q amendments are a remarkable example of Congressional corruption and inequity that supports the global rich at the cost of harming everyday Americans.
08 Monday Aug 2022
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